Wall Street has welcomed the second anniversary of the current bull market, with the S&P 500 Index rebounding by more than 60% from the bear market low. Despite the significant impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict at the beginning of 2022 on the global economy, leading to soaring inflation, the index has risen by 62.6% since it hit a bottom of 3577.03 on October 12, 2022, closing at a historical high of 5815.03. The main drivers of this bull market include the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) trading, strong performance of large technology stocks, and market optimism that the Federal Reserve may achieve a soft economic landing.

JPMorgan recently stated that we have just passed the halfway point of a 46-month mid-cycle bull market, and if this trend continues, investors can expect approximately another 22 months of growth. Over the past two years, despite significant market corrections, the benchmark index has recovered and set dozens of historical highs, with records being broken almost every fifth trading day in 2024.

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Bespoke Investment Trust pointed out on social media that the S&P 500 Index's 60% change over the past two years ranks 95th in history.

One of the current questions is: how long can this bull market last? Signs indicate that the market seems to still have enough support, especially after the Federal Reserve's first rate cut in four years and the upward revision of US economic growth expectations.

Dow Jones data shows that unless there is a 40% plunge before January, the S&P 500 Index will achieve at least a 20% increase for the second consecutive year, which would be the first time since 1998. Despite money market fund assets breaking through the $6.5 trillion mark in October, the stock market continues to rise. Senior strategist Ed Yardeni stated that if the Federal Reserve continues to lower interest rates, stock prices may soar further.

However, hurricanes in Florida, the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East, and the upcoming presidential election all pose risks to investors. In addition, the expected price-to-earnings ratio of the S&P 500 Index has approached the "overvalued" range, jumping from 15 in October 2022 to 21.6, close to the 25.5 in 1999.

Nevertheless, the stock market valuation no longer seems so overvalued. Wall Street believes that a broader market is a healthier market. In the third quarter, the equal-weighted S&P 500 Index outperformed the market capitalization-weighted index, indicating that the influence of the "seven US giants" on the index is weakening. Compared to a year ago, 85% of the companies in the S&P 500 Index are now profitable.

Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, stated that while it is impossible to accurately predict how long this bull market will last, there is no reason to expect a recession or the end of the bull market at least in the next 6 to 9 months. He added that although the 62.6% increase over the past two years may have surprised many, the average bull market lasts for more than five years, which means the current bull market may still have greater growth potential.

In terms of individual stocks, aside from Tesla, the seven major technology giants have played a key role in this bull market, with their stock prices generally rising by about 60% since October 12, 2022.