"Don't Panic! A-Shares to See Second Rally; 9 Stocks Have Over 50% Upside"

185 Comments 2024-05-06

After the National Day holiday, the A-share market experienced significant fluctuations, but contrary to the period before the holiday, the overall trend was dominated by oscillation and adjustment. In the view of many industry insiders, the recent surge was too large, and adjustment is a normal phenomenon. At the same time, some industry insiders pointed out that market adjustments cannot affect the long-term upward trend, and the first wave of adjustment is nearing its end. From the latest brokerage ratings, there is still a considerable room for the share prices of many individual stocks to rise.

The market is expected to usher in a second wave of rising trends.

According to statistics, from October 8th to 10th, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.04% during the period, with a significant drop of 6.62% on the 9th, and some stabilization on the 10th and 11th.

In this regard, Yang Delong, Chief Economist of Qianhai Open Source Fund, analyzed and pointed out that there are three main reasons for the significant adjustment of A-shares:

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First, the pressure of profit-taking. Over the past week, the increase in many individual stocks has even exceeded 30%, accumulating a large amount of profit-taking, which led to a significant market adjustment. This is also a correction for the excessively rapid rise in the earlier period.

Second, the impact of external market pressures. The day before the sharp decline, Hong Kong stocks, Chinese concept stocks, and the Singapore FTSE A50 Index all experienced significant declines, demonstrating the market's interconnected effect.

Third, the adjustment of the rhythm of this round of rising trends. The logic behind this round of trends has not changed. A series of significant policies have driven the market, and there are still a series of incremental policies to come, all of which have strengthened market confidence. Therefore, after completing this round of adjustments, the market is expected to usher in a second wave of rising trends.

"The first wave of adjustment for the 'confidence bull' is nearing its end. Firmly looking at the bull market, it is hard to buy a bull's return, and after picking up people, we will set off again."

In Ren Zeping's view, the highest meeting clearly proposed to "strive to boost the capital market" and "increase the counter-cyclical adjustment intensity of fiscal and monetary policies." The central bank, the China Securities Regulatory Commission, the Ministry of Finance, and others have all expressed their positions, taking out policies with real money to save the economy and the market. Everyone is actively working hard, and the stock market is entering a bull market, with the economic recovery seeing hope. At the same time, Ren Zeping further pointed out that while the market and investors are optimistic, they should be appropriately objective and rational. In the future, more policy efforts are needed, and more efforts are required to release corporate vitality. The road is tortuous, but the future is bright. We look forward to China's economic recovery and the prosperous development of the stock market.

Regarding market concerns about whether stimulus policies can continue, Ren Zeping said that if this stimulus policy starts strong but ends weakly, causing the stock market to soar and plummet, and the economy does not improve, it will eliminate a group of middle-class people, and corporate confidence will be hit twice, which is undoubtedly adding insult to injury. On the contrary, if the stimulus policy continues to exert force, solves the deep-seated mechanism issues of private confidence, and prioritizes development, the stock market will experience a major bull market, real estate will stop falling and stabilize, the economy will bottom out and move towards a recovery track, and global funds will flow into RMB assets, which will clear the gloom and boost morale. "And I choose to believe in the future. The more critical the moment, the more I choose to stand with the great motherland. We deeply love our country and this land."Multiple Stocks with Significant Upside Potential

If the current market situation can be likened to a "reverse gear to pick up passengers," which stocks are worth "boarding"? By examining the recent investment ratings from research institutions and brokerage firms, many individual stocks are seen to have considerable room for price appreciation.

According to statistics, in the past month, brokerage firms have collectively issued 385 latest ratings with specific target prices for the related stocks. Despite a recent general market rally, when compared to the closing prices on October 10th, there are still 275 latest ratings indicating that the stocks have room for price increases. Among them, Jinhong Group, Digital China Information, Waldorf, Guotai Junan, and Haoyang Shares are among nine stocks with a price increase potential of over 50%.

At present, Jinhong Group has the highest expected price increase potential. According to announcements, the company is a brand women's wear enterprise that faced performance pressure in the second quarter of this year. However, it has recently opened its first urban flagship store, with the brand's first high-end product line T.W.R.C. being launched simultaneously. In the view of GF Securities, both the opening of the first urban flagship store and the national launch of the high-end series T.W.R.C. are important initiatives for the company to focus on offline transformation. Especially against the backdrop of the continuous decline of online traffic dividends, the former helps to further enhance the brand image and customer shopping experience, while the latter helps to expand the age range and life scenarios. Therefore, GF Securities has a cautious outlook on the company's performance in the third quarter this year, with the fourth quarter potentially showing improvement. The company is given a "Buy" rating, with a corresponding target price of 12.97 yuan per share, which represents a 68.44% increase from the latest closing price of 7.7 yuan per share.

Guotai Junan, which has recently resumed trading and seen consecutive price increases due to reorganization matters, also has a high potential for stock price increase. In the view of Huatai Securities, Guotai Junan's share exchange to absorb and merge Haitong Securities, along with a non-public fundraising of up to 10 billion yuan, will result in a strong union and complementary advantages after the merger. This will create a brand advantage in terms of customer base, service capabilities, and operational management. Therefore, Huatai Securities has given a "Buy" rating to both A-shares and H-shares of Guotai Junan, with corresponding target prices of 26.28 yuan and 15.02 Hong Kong dollars, respectively. The 26.28 yuan target represents a 62.52% increase from Guotai Junan's closing price on October 10th.

"National Team," Individual Investors, and Foreign Capital Appear in Large Numbers

Among the stocks with the highest potential for price increases, many have already been heavily invested in by well-known institutions or investors, especially the top nine stocks with the highest potential for price increases, all of which have the backing of well-known institutions or investors.

Taking Jinhong Group as an example, during the second quarter of this year, there were significant changes among its top ten circulating shareholders. Among them, the "National Team" National Social Security Fund 116 portfolio increased its holdings by 2.2766 million shares compared to the end of the first quarter of this year. At the same time, the holding quantity of a product under the well-known investor Wang Guobin's Quan Guo Fund also increased by 117,600 shares. In addition, three products under Nanfang Fund newly invested heavily in the company.

Digital China Information has won the favor of "super individual investors" Tu Wenbin and Shi Yuqing and his wife. At the end of the second quarter of this year, Tu Wenbin and Shi Yuqing both newly appeared on the list of the company's top ten circulating shareholders, and they respectively became the third and fifth largest circulating shareholders of the company. The frequency of Tu Wenbin and Shi Yuqing appearing at the same time is not high. In addition to Digital China Information, Tu Wenbin newly invested heavily in Tianjian Technology, and Shi Yuqing heavily invested in Aotu Electronics. The two also jointly heavily invested in Shiji Guangzi.

In addition, the billion-yuan private equity Ying Shui Investment heavily invested in Waldorf, with one of its products increasing its holdings by 487,300 shares during the second quarter; the "National Team" China Securities Finance heavily invested in Guotai Junan; Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited and the National Social Security Fund 420 portfolio jointly increased their holdings in Haoyang Shares...

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