1. On October 14th (Monday), before the U.S. stock market opens, the three major U.S. stock index futures fluctuated. The Dow futures fell by 0.14%, the S&P 500 index futures rose by 0.14%, and the Nasdaq futures increased by 0.26%.

2. The German DAX index increased by 0.35%, the UK FTSE 100 index decreased by 0.06%, the French CAC 40 index fell by 0.31%, and the Euro Stoxx 50 index dipped by 0.01%.

3. WTI crude oil dropped by 2.42%, trading at $73.73 per barrel. Brent crude oil fell by 2.29%, trading at $77.23 per barrel.

Market News

The "Terrifying Data" and significant earnings reports are coming this week! The expectation of interest rate cuts will further face the test. The U.S. stock market closed at a record high again last week, as investors began to digest the quarterly earnings reports, and the debate about what actions the Federal Reserve will take at the November interest rate meeting intensified. Last week, the Nasdaq index, the S&P 500 index, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all rose by more than 1%, with the Dow and the S&P 500 index closing at historical highs on Friday. In the coming week, the U.S. monthly retail sales report, known as the "Terrifying Data," will lead the economic calendar, and investors will assess whether the economy has re-accelerated after the unexpectedly strong employment report in September. In terms of corporate news, major banks such as Bank of America (BAC.US), Goldman Sachs (GS.US), and Morgan Stanley (MS.US) will release their earnings reports. TSMC (TSM.US) and ASML (ASML.US) will also start the semiconductor industry's earnings reports, and the earnings reports of United Airlines (UAL.US) and Netflix (NFLX.US) will also be the focus of this week.

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Is inflation target within reach? Goldman Sachs forecasts September PCE to approach the Federal Reserve's 2% target. The U.S. September Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) report will be released on October 31, 2024. Goldman Sachs economists pointed out in a recent report regarding this data: they predict that the inflation indicator will increase by 2.04% over the next 12 months, rounded to 2%, which is the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate. The Personal Consumption Expenditure report will provide the latest insights into inflation trends, including the overall and core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index, all of which the Federal Reserve closely monitors when making monetary policy decisions. The Personal Consumption Expenditure report is often described as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator. It is worth noting that Goldman Sachs expects the "core" Personal Consumption Expenditure to be 2.6%. The core inflation rate excludes food and energy, and the Federal Reserve considers it a better indicator of long-term trends. The PCE annual rate is 2.6%, significantly lower than the 3.3% derived from the CPI report last week.

Uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut prospects intensifies market volatility, and investors turn to medium-term bonds. As the prospects for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path become more uncertain, bond investors begin to take defensive measures. Last week's unexpectedly high inflation data and weak labor market data led traders to reduce bets on the extent of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts for the remainder of 2024, also pushing U.S. Treasury yields to their highest level since July. In addition, a closely watched measure of expected volatility in U.S. Treasury bonds also rose to its highest level since January. Against this backdrop, it is difficult for investors to decide where to allocate cash in the world's largest bond market. To mitigate vulnerabilities brought by economic resilience, potential fiscal shocks, or U.S. election turmoil, asset management companies including BlackRock, Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), and UBS Global Wealth Management advocate purchasing five-year bonds.

Goldman Sachs raises China's real GDP forecast: 4.9% growth in 2024 and 4.7% growth in 2025. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 and 2025, following the Chinese government's announcement of a series of measures to stimulate economic growth, including plans to expand public spending announced over the weekend. The bank expects China's real GDP to grow by 4.9% this year, higher than the previous 4.7%. According to a report released on Sunday, the institution also raised its forecast for China's economic growth next year from 4.3% to 4.7%. Goldman Sachs economists, including Hui Shan, wrote: "China's latest round of stimulus measures clearly indicate that policymakers have shifted to cyclical policy management and increased their focus on the economy." The forecast upgrade comes as economists and investors assess the potential impact of the stimulus measures taken by the Chinese government since late September to boost the economy.

Individual Stock News

Gurman: Apple (AAPL.US) may launch a low-cost headset as early as next year, with smart glasses expected by 2027. According to media reports on Sunday, Mark Gurman, a well-known technology journalist at Bloomberg, said that Apple may release a lower-priced Vision headset device as early as next year to develop a more mass-appealing mixed reality headset device. The company's previously released $3,500 headset, Vision Pro, did not generate much enthusiasm. Since its launch in the United States in February, the device has not sold more than 100,000 units in a quarter, and it is expected that this year's sales will not exceed 500,000 units. The report also stated that the low-end model is expected to be priced at around $2,000 and may use a weaker processor and cheaper materials. The report also said that Apple expects sales of this low-cost headset to be at least double that of Vision Pro.TSMC Denies Plans for European Investment. There have been reports that TSMC plans to build more factories in Europe, focusing on the artificial intelligence chip market to expand its global business footprint. It was said that TSMC has already begun constructing its first wafer fab in Dresden, Germany, and plans to build several wafer fabs in the future targeting different market sectors. However, TSMC stated in a declaration that the company remains focused on its current global expansion projects and currently has no new investment plans. TSMC is the world's largest chip manufacturer, with the majority of its chips produced in Taiwan, China. The company is currently investing tens of billions of dollars in building new factories in the United States, Japan, Germany, and other places. In August of this year, TSMC's chip manufacturing factory in Dresden, Germany, with an investment of 10 billion euros, broke ground. This is the company's first factory in the European Union, and the German government provided a subsidy of 5 billion euros for the construction of the factory.

Apple's (AAPL.US) California Testing Permit Revoked, Autonomous Vehicle Program Officially Ends. According to reports, at Apple's request, the California Department of Motor Vehicles revoked the company's permit to test autonomous vehicles on public roads in California, which means Apple has officially halted its previously rumored autonomous vehicle program. This permit was first issued in 2017, allowing Apple to test autonomous vehicles on the road with a safety driver until April 30, 2025. It is known that Apple submitted a confirmation notice to cancel the permit to the California Department of Motor Vehicles. The department replied on September 25th that the permit would be revoked on September 27th. This is the latest setback for Apple's autonomous vehicle project, Titan. Earlier this year, it was reported that the tech giant postponed the release of the Apple car and reduced the autonomous driving level from Level 4 to Level 2+.

After Selling Off Bank of America, Berkshire Hathaway Significantly Increases Stake in SiriusXM (C). Last week, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A.US) significantly purchased shares of the broadcasting company SiriusXM. According to the filing submitted to the regulatory agency last Friday, the investment group bought $86.73 million worth of shares in three days, increasing its total holdings in the company to 108.72 million shares. Berkshire Hathaway bought 869,800 shares of SiriusXM on Wednesday last week; on Thursday, it purchased 917,800 shares and 517,200 shares through two separate transactions; and on Friday, it bought 1.2593 million shares. Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its stake in SiriusXM as early as November 2023. In September last year, after completing a transaction with Liberty Media, SiriusXM became an independent publicly listed company with a simplified capital structure. The broadcasting company is expected to announce its first performance since then on October 31st.