Argentine Stocks Surge 23% Amid 28% Currency Plunge

124 Comments 2024-07-25

Argentina is now in a state of great excitement, with Mauricio Macri, known as "Little Trump," having just been elected. The Argentine stock market soared by 22.84% on the first day, yet the Argentine people are not happy because the peso has collapsed again. National wealth has not only failed to grow but has actually shrunk. What exactly is going on? How has the United States managed to manipulate Argentina so effectively?

Macri, who advocates for full dollarization and the abolition of the peso, was elected as the new president of Argentina, causing the country's capital market to boil over. Macri was elected on the 19th, and since the 20th was a traditional Argentine holiday with the stock market closed, it wasn't until the market opened on the 21st that hot money flooded in, leading to a single-day surge of 22.84% in the Argentine stock market, setting a historical record.

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Why has the capital market reacted so strongly?

This is because the new Argentine president has proposed a series of "economic shock therapies," which, in addition to selling off state-owned enterprise assets and implementing full privatization of companies, also include "blowing up" the central bank, canceling domestic fuel price controls, and fully transitioning to "dollarization."

In the current situation in Argentina, where domestic prices are soaring and the currency is rapidly depreciating, people are living in dire conditions. The uninformed Argentine public attributes this to the government's policies, so when a disruptive figure emerges, people have high expectations.

Although it is the Argentine stock market that has soared, Chinese stock market investors have been hurt. Why has our stock market fallen again? Don't jump to conclusions just yet.

If the Argentine stock market really did rise and the Argentine currency, the peso, remained stable, then that would be a gain for the Argentine people. However, this is not the case. While the stock market has soared, the Argentine peso futures contract for two months has fallen by 28%.

The decline of the Argentine peso is directly related to the US dollar's interest rate hikes. Now, Macri wants to abolish the peso, which further exacerbates the peso's decline. He even said on a television program, "Never use pesos, never use pesos. The peso is a currency issued by Argentine politicians, so it cannot be valuable. This trash is not even good enough to be used as fertilizer."See it? Although your paper wealth has increased in this way, if you take out 100 pesos from the stock market today and spend 100 pesos on a bowl of rice, even though your 100 pesos may appreciate in the stock market tomorrow to 122.84, the price of a bowl of rice tomorrow might become 128. Can you still be happy?

Do you think this is理所当然?

Of course not.

All of this is achieved by the United States through manipulating interest rates and affecting exchange rates. If the Argentine stock market were to soar and the peso to remain stable, it would be as if Argentina had harvested the United States. Is that possible? Of course not.

Isn't Argentina's new president, Miley, going to fully dollarize and abolish the peso? If the market value of companies in Argentina increases, the goal of the US dollar's interest rate hike will not be achieved.

Why?

The purpose the United States wants to achieve through interest rate hikes is the devaluation of other countries' currencies, followed by a decline in the stock market, a reduction in asset value, and the United States can buy other countries' high-quality assets at a very low dollar valuation during the initial stage of interest rate cuts.

In recent decades, the United States has harvested several rounds through the dollar's interest rate hike cycle. Currently, the United States' one-year interest rate is only about 5.5%, and in the 1980s, this figure once reached 20%.

Do you think the past one or two years have been very difficult, whether investing in A-shares, real estate, or consumption? In fact, these are the results the United States wants to harvest from us. Fortunately, we have strictly limited the arbitrary buying and selling of foreign capital, such as Pan Shiyi's SOHO China wanted to sell cheaply to Blackstone, and was directly stopped.

In the 1970s, the United States lowered interest rates, and the interest on borrowing dollars was much lower than its own currency, so many enterprises in Latin America, including Argentina and Brazil, started borrowing dollars, which was very refreshing!However, by the 1980s, the United States began to raise interest rates. An increase in interest rates means an adjustment upwards, and if you want to roll over the money you borrowed before, you will have to pay more interest.

During this period, the interest on dollar-denominated debt once soared to as high as 20%, far exceeding the profit margins of most companies. At this time, the money earned by companies was not enough to pay the interest, let alone the principal.

In such a situation, the only choice is to default, declare bankruptcy, and then the valuation of these companies plummets. Countries like Argentina chose to go bankrupt.

At that time, Latin American countries sold all their assets for only $19.5 billion. In the end, the United States easily plundered Latin American countries at a very low cost. For the United States, a hundred-dollar bill is just a few cents.

Then a new round of harvesting began, this time targeting Asian countries, triggering the Southeast Asian financial crisis. In the 20 months after the crisis broke out, Southeast Asia conducted more than 200 foreign acquisitions in total.

The current round we are experiencing is already the fourth one. In recent years, the United States has implemented multiple rounds of QE policies, which is actually a loose monetary policy, lowering interest rates to release dollar liquidity.

But this time, the main target is us, which is what everyone calls the financial war. However, the United States has failed. Have you noticed that the monetary policies of other countries are exactly the same as those of the United States?

For example, the rhythm and values of interest rate hikes and cuts in our Hong Kong region are exactly the same as those in the United States, and the same is true for countries like Argentina. But we are just the opposite. Isn't the United States raising interest rates? We actually lower interest rates.

We also implement a managed floating exchange rate system and impose conditional restrictions on the entry and exit of foreign capital. These two points directly cut off the United States' attempts to disrupt our fruitless financial markets and harvest our country.

Now, Europe, Latin America, and even the United States itself can't hold on anymore. The easing of Sino-American relations actually symbolizes the United States' phased abandonment. At that time, our lives were also very difficult, but fortunately, we didn't end up like Latin America and Southeast Asia in the past.Currently, the poverty rate in Argentina has reached 40.1%, with inflation in October soaring to 8.3%, and the annual inflation rate this year has reached 142.7%, marking the highest level in 32 years.

For Argentina, its stock market has risen, but only when the exchange rate falls and assets decline does it align with American interests. The United States can no longer reap benefits from us, and it will absolutely not allow any country like Argentina to slip through the cracks. What are your thoughts on this?

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